The military balance around the strategically important Bab al-Mandeb Strait appears to be shifting following a rapid Ansarallah offensive along Yemen’s western coast. Over two to three days of fighting, the group claims to have taken control of approximately 5,400 square kilometres of territory, while Saudi-backed and other government-aligned forces reportedly withdrew from several positions, in some cases leaving behind military vehicles, weapons and other equipment.
Key developments include:
- Around 5,400 sq km reportedly captured in two to three days.
- Mokha and Dhubab reportedly came under Ansarallah control.
- Zuqar and Mayyun islands were also reportedly seized.
- Saudi-backed forces withdrew from several positions.
- Retreating forces reportedly left behind military vehicles, weapons and other matériel.
These gains are significant because Mokha, Dhubab, Zuqar and Mayyun are located close to the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Ansarallah already possesses anti-ship missiles and drones capable of threatening maritime traffic, but a more forward territorial presence could allow surveillance systems, artillery and shorter-range weapons to be positioned much closer to international shipping lanes.
If these gains are consolidated, Ansarallah would be in a stronger position to exert pressure over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. The significance therefore goes beyond territorial control: a permanent presence closer to Bab al-Mandeb could materially alter the security environment in the southern Red Sea and increase risks for both commercial and military shipping.
Author: Mikael Darbinian is a former US diplomat, geopolitical and military analyst and founder of Security Observer. He specialises in foreign policy analysis, military affairs and international security.
