Expert voices on international security

Research, analysis and strategic advisory

Indonesia’s 2024 election was a victory for machinery, not just a man

ndonesia’s 2024 election is often told as the story of Prabowo Subianto’s comeback. That is true, but incomplete. The deeper story is about machinery: party coalitions, local brokers, family networks, digital campaigning and the quiet endurance of patronage politics.

The election was enormous. Reuters reported that 204.8 million Indonesians were eligible to vote on 14 February 2024, making it one of the largest single-day democratic exercises in the world. Scale is Indonesia’s democratic achievement — and its democratic problem.

Prabowo won decisively, with AP reporting that he secured 58.6% of the vote after the Constitutional Court rejected challenges from his rivals. But landslides can blur as much as they reveal. They show popularity, yet they can also hide how uneven political resources are.

Indonesia’s democracy has never been a simple morality play between reform and authoritarianism. It is a negotiation between voters, oligarchs, religious organisations, parties, courts, celebrities and local fixers.

The question after 2024 is not whether Indonesia remains democratic. It is what kind of democracy it is becoming: competitive, transactional, centralised, or still open enough for citizens to surprise the elites.

Author: Aditya Pratama is a political sociologist and expert in Indonesian governance and Southeast Asian studies.

The Throne, the Patrons and the Treasury: Why Africa’s Wars Do Not End

Photo: AP Photo/Mohnd Blal Across the continent, armed conflicts follow a recurring script: a contested claim to power, foreign[…]

The Killing of a Dawlah Islamiyah-Hassan Group Leader: Security Implications and Militant Sympathies

Photo: The STAR, John Unson Suspected leader of the Dawlah Islamiyah (DI)-Hassan Group, Yusa Ganoy, along with three of[…]

The Geopolitics of Despair: Why North Africa’s Social Crisis Is a Security Crisis

Photo: Italian Navy Europe’s border-first approach treats the symptoms of youth hopelessness in the Maghreb while its political and[…]

African Union Air defence AIS Ansar Allah Asymmetric warfare Bab el-Mandeb Ballistic missiles China commercial shipping Donald Trump Drones Drone warfare Energy Security Flight tracking geopolitical risk Geopolitics global trade Gulf of Aden Gulf security Gulf states Hormuz Horn of Africa Houthis India Indian Ocean Iran Maritime Chokepoints Maritime Domain Awareness Maritime Intelligence maritime risk Maritime security maritime threats Maritime Trade Mauritius Middle East security Military aviation Military technology naval operations Naval Security Oil markets Open-source intelligence OSINT Pakistan Persian Gulf port security Red Sea Red Sea Security Regional Security Russia Russia-Ukraine war Sahel Saudi Arabia Shadow Fleet Shipping Risk Shipping Routes shipping security Somalia Somali piracy Strait of Hormuz Strategic Autonomy supply chains Supply chain security Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Yemen