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The US–Iran MoU Has Expired: Could a New Regional Alliance Increase Pressure on Tehran?

Photo: Keystone Pictures USA/ZUMAPRESS.com /NTB

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is no longer in force. It could have been extended by mutual agreement, but that ultimately did not happen. Instead of an extension, President Donald Trump hardened his rhetoric today, calling on Iran to raise the “white flag” of capitulation.

  • Trump says the United States remains in contact and negotiations with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

  • Iran completely denies that any negotiations or contacts with the United States are taking place.

  • Tehran says it is prepared to respond to any new US violation.

  • Iran maintains that Washington’s own actions were responsible for preventing the memorandum from functioning.

  • Trump spoke favourably about the new alliance involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

  • According to Trump, these countries are taking steps to strengthen their own defence.

This new cooperation is, to some extent, reminiscent of the 1955 Baghdad Pact, which brought Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan together within a regional security architecture that was then largely directed against Soviet influence. The geopolitical context today is very different, but Trump is speaking increasingly favourably about this emerging alignment. The key question is whether Washington will eventually seek to turn it into another regional instrument of pressure against Iran.

Author: Mikael Darbinian is a former US diplomat, geopolitical and military analyst and founder of Security Observer. He specialises in foreign policy analysis, military affairs and international security.

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